Saturday, December 22: Las Vegas Bowl in Las Vegas, NV at 3:30 pm EST
#23 Boise State Broncos (10-2) vs. Washington Huskies (7-5)
Boise State is at the Las Vegas Bowl for the third straight year, but this time it isn't beneath them. They're where they belong, and playing a BCS-conference school roughly at their level.
Vegas line/spread: Boise State by 5? (over/under 46)
The line started out a somewhat surprising 7 points for Boise State, and has eased to 5 points. The oddsmakers expect a fairly low-scoring game.
Boise State's strength ranking is #33 and Washington is #44, so one might expect a more comfortable win% for the Broncos than 52%. But Washington played several outlier games on the upside that put them near-even when game ratings are compared, and make them a solid favorite against the spread.
Strength Power Rating:?? Boise St 19, Wash 17? ?? by Median rating:? Boise St 20, Wash 16
Yardage analysis: ? Boise St 17, Washington 14 ??? per-play:?? Boise St 24, Washington 20
The yardage analysis is much the same as the scoring analysis, yielding a slim Boise win. Boise State is 35th and Washington 47th in adjusted yardage differential, and again, the teams show poor offensive capability and strong defense. The end projection is for Boise State to exceed 300 total yards by a nominal amound, while Washington falls short of that figure. The per-attempt averages largely concur.
Adjustments to yardage estimate: ? Boise State 17, Washington 10
- Interceptions: Neither team is likely to suffer or gain a lot of interceptions on average, with each falling short of 1 based on their interceptions and pass breakups. Both teams have garnered a lot of picks without any player having over three, but neither QB is interception-prone. In the end Washington holds a slight edge that translates into less than a point.
- Forced fumbles: Boise State is number 2 in the nation in forcing fumbles (corrected for opposition) and Washington coughs it up a lot (#117), so the Broncos hold a decent advantage, over 2-to-1, in expected fumbles forced. Only about half of those result in a turnover, so the Broncos gain a bit less than 3 points.
- Sacks:? Another big area for Boise State; they rank #8 in quarterback protection to Washington's #107, suggesting a 3-to-1 advantage in sacks and docking around 3.5 points from Washington.
- Red zone%: Both teams have rather poor red zone offenses, ranking 88th and 89th in the nation when adjusted for opposition. The defenses are fairly good, with Washington's a bit better. That works out to low estimates for both teams: 56% for Washington, 55% for Boise State, lowing each teams' projected score by a point or two.
- Kick returns: Boise State is #9 in kickoff return average while Washington is #72 on coverage, and though those are unadjusted figures it seems Boise should gain field position there. Washington is no better than average on kick returns while Boise's defense is decent.
A lot of the evidence here goes Boise State's way, answering the question of why the line started at 7 points. Special teams play and potential for big plays/turnovers give Boise State a marked boost, resulting in the 7-point spread that looked excessive when considering solely the teams' offenses and defenses.
Estimated Time of Possession: ? Boise State: 28:54 ?? Washington: 31:06
Washington should have the ball about 2 minutes more than Boise State if they play their normal tempos.
When Boise State has the ball
| Boise State rushing offense: #63 |
Washington rushing defense: #52 |
Boise State has almost an exactly average rushing game, ranking 63rd out of 124 FBS schools after adjusting for their schedule. Washington's rush defense isn't great, but is slightly above average, resulting in an estimate of around 160 yards for the Broncos. D.J. Harper leads the team with just over 1,000 yards on the season plus 15 TDs.
| Boise State passing offense: #72 | Washington passing defense: #8 ? per att: #22 |
| Boise State interceptions thrown ranking: #39 | Washington interceptions picked ranking: #14 |
| Boise State quarterback protection rank: #8 | Washington pass rush rank: #41 |
Here's the big difference between this year's and last year's Boise State team: a #72 passing production ranking. Joe Southwick is no Kellen Moore for the Broncos, but he has completed 2/3 of his attempts and has a respectable 17:7 TD:int ratio. Washington's pass defense is strong, however, so Southwick might manage just 150 yards.
If they're patient, though, Boise could surpass that. Interceptions shouldn't be a huge worry as Southwick has proven to be careful with the ball, and Boise State's solid protection is a holdover from their great teams of the last few years; Washington might get to him only once in the game under normal circumstances.
When Washington has the ball
| Washington rushing offense: #68 |
Boise State rushing defense: #45 |
Washington is also a mundane rushing team, with an 1,234 yard rusher in Bishop Sankey, who matches Harper's 15 touchdown runs. Boise State's rushing defense is a bit better than Washington's, so the Huskies should have around 150 yards.
| Washington passing offense: #86 | Boise State passing defense: #5 ? per att: #21 |
| Washington interceptions thrown ranking: #42 | Boise State interceptions picked ranking: #19 |
| Washington quarterback protection rank: #107 | Boise State pass rush rank: #29 |
Washington's Keith Price has been less productive this year, with 2,484 yards compared to over 3,000 in 2011. But remember than over 400 of those yards came in the shootout with Baylor in the Alamo Bowl, so he's not that far behind pace. Boise State has had amazing success against the pass for a team that lost nearly its entire starting defense from last season, and they could hold Price to 140 yards. The key receiving threats are Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Kasen Williams who combine for over 1,500 yards; if they don't have good games the Washington offense will stall.
Price has thrown 11 interception this year, but an outside number of picks isn't expected despite Boise's decent INT numbers. Sacks are a different matter, as Price has been taken down 33 times this year and Boise State puts on solid pass pressure. Expect a minimum of 3 sacks by the Broncos, and the Huskies' ability to protect Price so he can find his two best targets could make or break the passing game. Given the Broncos' coverage and pass pressure the Huskies may have pin their hopes on Sankop and the running game.
?
Boise State's season (10-2)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. SR Top 25 teams (0)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)
- @ Michigan State? 13-17
- Miami (OH)? 39-12
- Brigham Young? 7-6
- @ New Mexico? 32-29
- @ Southern Miss? 40-14
- Fresno State? 20-10
- UNLV? 32-7
- @ Wyoming? 45-14
- San Diego State? 19-21
- @ Hawaii? 49-14
- Colorado State? 42-14
- @ Nevada? 27-21
Everyone knew Boise State was not going to be as strong as the 2010 and 2011 models, but they had a decent chance of going undefeated due to their schedule. Their biggest roadblock was Michigan State, at the time touted by some as a national title contender. Based on that, the 17-13 loss would have been a great omen, but as it turns out the Spartans were on their way to a 6-6 finish.
The close loss wasn't a surprise, but in the weeks ahead the real surprise was the team's offense and defense. The offense was weaker than even the key losses they suffered on that side of the ball would have suggested, while the defense was shockingly strong for a unit that had lost 9 starters. The 7-6 win over BYU drove this point home in game 3. They also held Fresno State to 10 points in that win, while failing to score 20 against San Diego State. Three games under 20 points hadn't happened to the Broncos since 1999.
Washington's season (7-5)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. SR Top 25 teams (2)
Losses (5) to losing teams (1)
- San Diego State? 21-12
- @ #6 LSU? 3-41
- Portland State? 52-13
- #7 Stanford? 17-13
- @ #5 Oregon? 21-52
- USC? 14-24
- @ Arizona? 17-52
- #19 Oregon State? 20-17
- @ California? 21-13
- Utah? 34-15
- @ Colorado? 38-3
- @ Washington State? 28-31 OT
Washington played some really good games, and some really crap games. Early on, they beat San Diego State (who finished 9-3, and beat Boise State), but were destroyed by LSU 41-3. Their other two wins were strong, especially the upset of Stanford, who only lost to Notre Dame and the Huskies.
They lost three in a row in the mid-season, putting them at 3-4 and their bowl hopes in jeopardy, but only the 52-17 beatdown by Arizona was an embarrassment; they did about as well as expected at Oregon and against USC. Their 4-game winning streak was a thing of beauty, particularly on defense, as they added a win over 9-3 Oregon State, giving them 2 wins over consensus top 25 teams, best of any 7-5 team. Which made it all the more surprising that they lost their final to Washington State in overtime. Sometimes rivalry games are like that, though?and particularly in the Pac-12.
Looking at their charts, it appears that they depend on their defense for wins. Not just that their defense is the strong side of the team, but that the variability in the team's performance is more on the defensive side. All seven wins were solid defensive performances, while offense was still hit and miss. The losses were games where the defense didn't play up to that level, except perhaps the USC loss which was the offense's fault, and the LSU and Arizona games, in which both were at fault. Maybe it's easier just to point to the wins and say: every time they've won it's been accompanied by a very strong defensive effort.
Key Injuries
Boise has a number of defensive players who either didn't make the trip to Nevada or are questionable, including starter Dextrell Simmons. This could give Washington's offense a bit more confidence. The Huskies are looking at a pretty healthy team by game day but their areas of concern are mostly on the defensive side, too. Maybe there's hope for a bit of offense in this game after all.
Psychology/Motivation
- Boise State's season: -1 wins; Washington's season: +0 wins
- Boise State's momentum: +0 wins; Washington's momentum: +1 wins
- Boise State won final game: YES; Washington won final game: NO
- Boise State glad to be there? YES; Washington glad to be there: YES
- Boise State time zones from home: 1; Washington time zones from home: 0;
- Boise State coaching situation: stable; Washington coaching situation: stable
Both teams did about as well as they expected this year. Boise knew a decline was inevitable, and Washington realizes they are playing in a tough conference and improvement would be tough. On the momentum side, Washington recovered well from a 3-4 start but ended with a loss to bitter rival Washington State, which nullifies their season comeback. Boise narrowly missed a BCS bowl once again, but with 2 losses fans weren't expecting one and aren't complaining of being cheated by the system.
Boise State coach Chris Petersen has had a lot of interest from other programs but so far has stood firm that he's staying at Boise State, to the extent that it's not much of an issue in most people's minds right now. As long as that remains the truth through the 22nd, it's a plus for the Broncos in the bowl game.
Overall not much to pin anything on too solidly. Both teams know who they are and what they're up against.
Final analysis
When we first saw the 7 point spread for Boise State, we were a bit taken aback. Boise State hadn't done very well against 6-6 Michigan State, a team roughly in the same boat as Washington: a solid team in a tough conference. In fact, given the Big Ten's weakness this year, a 7-5 Washington compares favorably to the Spartans.
Washinton has a good defense but it's not quite what Michigan State has, and they won't be playing at home like the Spartans. That's enough to make the Broncos the favorite, but not by a touchdown; 2-3 points seemed more fair. As we did our analysis?and compared the teams' special teams and turnover play?we ended up with a 7-point Boise State win, also. So we see where that came from.
We can also see why the line moved toward Washington. The Huskies beat Stanford and Oregon State, both very impressive wins. They beat San Diego State, one of the 2 teams to beat Boise State. And Boise doesn't have too many good wins to hang their hat on. It seems fair to say that if Washington plays their best, they can beat Boise State when the Broncos are at their best.
But at both teams' worst, Boise wins easily. The question is, which Washington will show up? The team with the great defense that stifles the likes of Stanford and Oregon State? Or the team whose defense breaks down against LSU and Arizona? Will the disappointment of the Washington State loss dent the team's enthusiasm, or will they be over it? If they're flat, we could see about a 24-10 loss as the Huskie offense gets stalled.
But when we look at this year's Boise team compared to other Bronco teams, it looks like an off-year. Not that 10-2 is bad, but when Boise State loses more than one game, it's an off-year. The great Boise State teams ate BCS-conference schools for lunch: Oklahoma in 2006, Oregon in 2008 and 2009, Virginia Tech in 2010, and Georgia and ASU in 2011. Off-year teams lost to Georgia, Oregon State, and Boston College in 2005 and Washington in 2007. Add Michigan State in 2012 to that list and, we predict, Washington on December 22nd.
Prediction:? Washington 20, Boise State 17
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2012-2013 bowl game schedule.
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